According to a recent study, 19% of the increase in dengue burden is attributable to climate change, during a record year for dengue infections worldwide.

According to a new study presented at the annual meeting of the American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene (ASTMH) in the US, climate change could cause an additional 40–60% spike by 2050, and by as much as 150–200 percent in some areas.


This year, dengue cases have also increased in India.

The most conclusive proof yet that climate change is a major contributing factor to the global increase in the mosquito-borne illness comes from recent research conducted by scientists at Stanford and Harvard Universities.
Nearly 12 million cases were reported in the Americas alone in 2024, up from 4.6 million in 2023. California and Florida have also reported locally acquired infections. Additionally, the study warns of even more drastic increases in the future.

Erin Mordecai, an infectious disease ecologist at Stanford's Woods Institute for the Environment, stated, "We examined data on dengue incidence and climate variation across 21 countries in Asia and the Americas and found that there is a clear and direct relationship between rising temperatures and rising infections."


It's proof that climate change is already posing a serious risk to human health, and our data indicates that the effects could worsen for dengue in particular, Mordecai continued.
While some dengue infections only cause mild symptoms, others can cause severe joint pain, which is why dengue is known as "breakbone fever." Severe cases can also result in shock and bleeding complications.

Although there are two approved dengue vaccines, there are no medications to cure the illness, and some dengue experts have identified issues with both that may prevent their widespread use.


In light of dengue's increasing threat, the study concludes that lowering emissions and slowing global warming would also lessen the effects of the climate on dengue infections.
According to the analysis, regions that are currently expected to see a 60% increase in dengue infections between now and 2050 would instead see a 40% increase if emissions were drastically reduced.

However, even under the most optimistic scenarios for carbon reductions, the researchers discovered that 17 of the 21 countries they studied would still experience climate-driven increases in dengue, as global climate models predict that temperatures will continue to rise even with significant reductions in emissions.


According to Mordecai, dengue-endemic regions that are just beginning to enter the 20–29 degree Celsius sweet spot for virus transmission, such as portions of Peru, Mexico, Bolivia, and Brazil.